The Horn of Africa faces a perilous July 2025, as escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea threaten renewed conflict. Ethiopia's firm pursuit of Red Sea access, Eritrea's staunch defense of its sovereignty, and shifting alliances in Tigray are creating a volatile mix.
The 2018 rapprochement between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki has unraveled. Eritrea's continued military presence in parts of Tigray, despite the 2022 peace agreement, remains a key point of contention. Ethiopia now openly demands the withdrawal of Eritrean forces.
Ethiopia's declaration that Red Sea access is an "existential issue" has alarmed Eritrea, which controls the vital ports of Assab and Massawa. This has led to Eritrea's nationwide military mobilization in February 2025 and Ethiopia's subsequent troop deployments towards the border, raising fears of imminent direct conflict. For more details on the escalating tensions, refer to recent analyses by Al Jazeera. (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/25/are-ethiopia-and-eritrea-on-the-brink-of-war)
Further complicating matters, Eritrea has forged closer ties with Egypt and Somalia, creating a de facto anti-Ethiopian axis. More surprisingly, there's an apparent recalibration of relations between Eritrea and a faction of the TPLF, led by Debretsion Gebremichael. Despite their bitter past, TPLF leaders have expressed intentions to strengthen ties with Eritrea, leading to accusations from Ethiopia of "covert arrangements" to reignite conflict in Tigray. Eritrea reportedly views this TPLF faction as "useful idiots" for a proxy war.
The disputed territory of Welkayt, a fertile region bordering Sudan, stands as a dangerous flashpoint. Historically contested by both Tigray and Amhara, it was seized by Amhara forces and remains partially under Eritrean control. As July brings the crucial crop-farming rainy season to Ethiopia, making it a vital period for agriculture, waging war on Welkayet's land becomes particularly difficult and disruptive. Displaced Tigrayans are demanding returns to Welkayt, with the Tigray Interim Regional Administration hinting at force if peaceful means fail. The unresolved status of Welkayt, combined with renewed TPLF-Eritrea alignment and broader Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions, makes it a critical area where localized actions could trigger a wider, devastating conflict.