Diplomacy or Disruption: Trump's Tumultuous Role in the GERD Dispute and Ethiopia's Resilient Path
While the initial text highlighted his skepticism about American involvement, it's crucial to understand that Trump's statements on the GERD were not always consistent and, at times, became highly controversial.
Beyond Skepticism: Incitement and Accusations
Later in his presidency, particularly in October 2020, Trump's rhetoric escalated significantly. He made remarks that were widely condemned as inciting conflict:
- "Blowing Up the Dam": Trump publicly suggested that Egypt might "end up blowing up that dam." This statement, made during a phone call with the then-Prime Minister of Sudan, Abdalla Hamdok, caused outrage in Ethiopia.
- Accusations of "Breaking the Deal": Trump claimed that his administration had "a deal done for them, and then unfortunately, Ethiopia broke the deal which it should not have done." He also admitted for the first time that his administration, through Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, had authored a deal, overstepping its role as an observer. Ethiopia, however, rejected this "deal," stating it favored Egypt's interests and that it was not the outcome of the three countries' negotiations.
- Aid Suspension as Leverage: Trump also stated, "We've stopped payment to them of about – of a lot of aid," implying that aid to Ethiopia was withheld as leverage in the dam dispute. This move was largely ineffective and counterproductive, alienating Addis Ababa and pushing it further towards a narrative of self-reliance.
- False Claims of US Funding: More recently, even after leaving office, Trump has repeatedly and falsely claimed that the GERD was "mostly financed by American money." Ethiopian officials have vehemently denied these claims, asserting that the project was entirely self-funded through domestic contributions and government bonds.
Underlying Motivations (as perceived by analysts):
While Trump cited a general disinclination for third-party involvement in cross-border river disputes, some analysts and reports suggest other motivations for his later, more aggressive stance:
- Frustration with Failed Mediation: His heightened rhetoric in 2020 might have stemmed from frustration that the US-brokered talks, which he hosted, did not result in a signed agreement. Ethiopia had walked away from these talks, deeming the proposed agreement biased.
- Support for Egypt: There were perceptions, particularly from Ethiopia, that the Trump administration leaned heavily in favor of Egypt's position due to broader geopolitical interests and historical alliances.
- Personal Aspiration for "Peace Prize": Some speculated that Trump's desire for a Nobel Peace Prize played a role in his drive to "solve" international disputes, including the GERD.
The Ethiopian Perspective: Sovereignty and Self-Reliance
Ethiopia consistently viewed the GERD as a monumental symbol of its sovereignty and a crucial project for national development.
- Sovereign Right: Ethiopia asserts its sovereign right to utilize its natural resources, including the Blue Nile, for the benefit of its people and economic growth.
- Domestic Funding: A key aspect of Ethiopia's assertion of sovereignty was its decision to largely self-finance the multi-billion dollar project through public contributions and government bonds. This strategy minimized dependence on external creditors and provided Ethiopia with significant diplomatic leverage, allowing it to resist external pressure and conditions.
- Rejection of Colonial-Era Treaties: Ethiopia explicitly rejected any agreements or claims based on colonial-era treaties that it did not sign and that it views as unjustly allocating Nile waters.
- Commitment to Equitable Utilization: While asserting its sovereign right, Ethiopia has consistently stated its commitment to the principles of equitable and reasonable utilization of the Nile waters and to avoiding significant harm to downstream countries, primarily through adherence to the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP).
- African-Led Solutions: Ethiopia strongly advocated for and preferred African Union-led negotiations as the primary forum for resolving the dispute, emphasizing the principle of "African solutions to African problems."
Impact on US-Ethiopia Relations
Trump's controversial statements, particularly the "blowing up the dam" comment and the aid suspension, caused significant strain on US-Ethiopia relations:
- Diplomatic Outrage: Ethiopia officially summoned the US Ambassador to seek clarification and denounced the remarks as "belligerent threats" and "clear violations of international law."
- Erosion of Trust: The perception of US bias and the use of aid as leverage damaged trust and undermined the US's credibility as an impartial mediator.
- Reinforced Ethiopian Resolve: Far from pressuring Ethiopia, Trump's remarks arguably strengthened Ethiopia's resolve to complete the dam and resist what it perceived as external interference in its sovereign development efforts.
In summary, while the initial text suggested a principled objection to third-party involvement, Trump's engagement with the GERD dispute evolved into a far more provocative and impactful stance, triggering strong reactions from Ethiopia and significantly influencing the dynamics of the negotiations and bilateral relations.
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