Deepening the Rift: Why Eritrea-Ethiopia Relations Soured Further
While the Pretoria Agreement was hailed as a peace deal, it paradoxically became a wedge between Ethiopia and its former ally, Eritrea. Eritrea's primary grievance stems from its exclusion from the negotiations, despite its significant military involvement in the Tigray war. Asmara saw its participation as crucial to permanently dismantle the TPLF, which it views as an existential threat. The peace agreement, by bringing the TPLF back into a political framework (albeit an interim one), was perceived by Eritrea as undermining its strategic objectives.
Furthermore, Ethiopia's intensified push for Red Sea access, particularly after the MoU with Somaliland, has deeply alarmed Eritrea. For Asmara, this is not merely an economic aspiration for Ethiopia but a direct challenge to Eritrea's sovereignty and its control over vital ports like Assab. Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki's strong rhetoric, accusing Ethiopia of "unlawful ambitions" and "acts of subversion," underscores this heightened sense of threat. Ethiopia, in turn, accuses Eritrea of meddling in its internal affairs.
The lingering issue of border demarcation, despite the 2000 Algiers Agreement, also contributes to the friction. Reports of continued Eritrean troop presence in parts of Tigray, in defiance of the Pretoria Agreement's call for withdrawal of foreign forces, fuel suspicions and mistrust.
Eritrea's Alleged Support for Rebel Groups: A Proxy Strategy?
The reports of Eritrea supporting various rebel groups against the ENDF suggest a shift in Eritrea's strategy from direct military intervention (during the Tigray war) to a more indirect approach aimed at destabilizing Ethiopia. This strategy is seen as benefiting Eritrea by keeping Ethiopia preoccupied with internal conflicts and preventing it from fully consolidating its power or pursuing its Red Sea ambitions aggressively.
- Support for TPLF Factions: Exploiting Internal Divisions: After the Pretoria Agreement, the TPLF experienced internal power struggles and divisions. Reports indicate that Eritrea has been engaging with the faction led by Debretsion Gebremichael, despite this faction's public denials. The goal appears to be to exploit these internal rifts within Tigray.
- Proxy Battlefield: By reportedly supporting specific TPLF factions, Eritrea aims to use Tigrayans as "useful idiots" (a term reportedly used by an Eritrean intelligence chief) to wage a proxy conflict against the Ethiopian federal government. This would keep the border region volatile and tie up Ethiopian resources, preventing Ethiopia from focusing on external projections or further Red Sea initiatives.
- Reported Meetings: Credible sources, including DW and The Reporter Ethiopia, have cited reports of meetings between TPLF leaders (from the Debretsion faction) and Eritrean officials in Asmara since late 2024, lending credence to suspicions of collaboration. These actions are seen as a direct challenge to Ethiopia's national sovereignty, as regional entities are not authorized to conduct foreign relations.
- Support for Fano Militia in Amhara: Training and Arming: Observers and various reports suggest that Eritrea has provided training and support to the Fano militia in the Amhara region. The Fano, an ethno-nationalist group, has been engaged in escalating clashes with the ENDF.
- Strategic Benefit: From Eritrea's perspective, a strong Fano movement that challenges the Ethiopian federal government directly serves its strategic interest in seeing a weakened and internally fragmented Ethiopia. This keeps Ethiopia's focus inward and prevents it from posing a significant regional challenge.
- Increased Clashes: Reports of significant clashes between Fano fighters and Ethiopian federal troops, such as a two-day battle in March 2025 that reportedly left hundreds of militia members dead, highlight the intensity of the conflict and the potential impact of external support.
Allegations of Economic Exploitation in Tigray
During and after the Tigray conflict, numerous reports, particularly from watchdog groups like The Sentry, have documented alleged systematic economic exploitation and illicit trade by Eritrea in Tigray.
- Systematic Looting: There are accusations of widespread and systematic looting of Tigrayan factories, infrastructure, and other valuable assets during the war. Factories were reportedly dismantled, and equipment was moved across the border into Eritrea. This was seen as an effort to cripple Tigray's economic base and enrich Eritrea.
- Illicit Trade and Smuggling: Eritrea is alleged to have profited from extensive illicit trade networks, smuggling valuable resources such as gold, sesame, and cultural artifacts out of Tigray. This illicit trade generates foreign currency that is believed to help fund Eritrea's ongoing operations, including its support for armed groups in Ethiopia.
- Human Trafficking: Disturbing reports also link Eritrean officials and networks to human trafficking operations, exploiting vulnerable populations, including Eritrean refugees and internally displaced Tigrayans. This exploitation, besides being a grave human rights violation, can also serve as a source of illicit income.
These allegations paint a picture of Eritrea leveraging the instability in Ethiopia's Tigray region not just for strategic military advantage but also for economic gain, further fueling the conflict cycle.
Broader Regional Realignment
The escalating tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia are also leading to broader regional realignments. Eritrea's increased ties with Egypt and Somalia, often described as an "axis against Ethiopia," signify a strategic counter-response to Ethiopia's Red Sea ambitions. This complex web of alliances and rivalries has the potential to significantly destabilize the Horn of Africa, with consequences that extend beyond the immediate neighbors. The lack of full implementation of the Pretoria Agreement, coupled with these new regional dynamics, contributes to a highly volatile "no-peace-no-war" situation.