The Great Game in the Horn of Africa: Somaliland's Quest for a Seat at the Table

August 23, 2025 by
Administrator

The Great Game in the Horn of Africa: Somaliland's Quest for a Seat at the Table

Somaliland, a de facto state for over three decades, is at the heart of a high-stakes geopolitical drama. For years, its quest for international recognition was largely sidelined. But in a pivotal shift, its ambition for sovereignty has become a crucial chip in a new "Great Game" for influence and control over the strategically vital Red Sea. By engaging in "give-and-take" diplomacy, Somaliland is trading its most valuable asset its coastline for the elusive promise of statehood.

The Ethiopia-Somaliland MoU: A Bold Gamble

The most striking example of this new strategy is the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with landlocked Ethiopia on January 1, 2024. In a historic and highly controversial move, Somaliland agreed to lease 20 kilometers of its coastline to Ethiopia for a naval base and commercial access. In return, Ethiopia would formally recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state and even grant it a stake in Ethiopian Airlines. This agreement represents a dramatic win for Somaliland, as it would be the first African country to recognize its independence. However, the deal has also ignited a firestorm of controversy.

  • Ethiopia's Gain: For Ethiopia, gaining sovereign access to the sea is an "existential" issue. Since Eritrea's independence in 1993, Ethiopia has relied almost entirely on the port of Djibouti, paying an estimated $1.5 billion annually in fees. The new deal with Somaliland offers a vital alternative and the chance to become a maritime power in its own right.
  • Somalia's Outrage: Somalia vehemently condemned the MoU, calling it an "act of aggression" and a violation of its sovereignty. The Somali government, which considers Somaliland its territory, immediately recalled its ambassador from Addis Ababa. Despite international mediation efforts by countries like Turkiye and the UAE, Somaliland and Ethiopia have both maintained that the agreement stands.

A New Battlefield for Global Powers

Somaliland's diplomatic strategy is not just a bilateral affair; it is deeply intertwined with the competing interests of global powers vying for influence in the Red Sea. The region is one of the world's most critical maritime corridors, with nearly a third of global shipping passing through the Bab al-Mandab Strait.

  • The US and the West: The US, while officially adhering to a "One-Somalia" policy, is becoming increasingly open to engaging with Somaliland due to security concerns. Somaliland's stable governance and control over its coastline are seen as valuable assets in combating terrorism from groups like Al-Shabaab and countering Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Some US officials have even proposed establishing a military presence on the Somaliland coast.
  • Turkiye and the Gulf States: These countries are major players with their own vested interests. Turkiye maintains a strong presence in Mogadishu, Somalia, with a large military base, and has often positioned itself as a key mediator in regional disputes. The UAE, with its significant investment in the Berbera port, has close ties to Somaliland and has a strong economic incentive to see the region stabilized. China, with its naval base in neighboring Djibouti, is also keenly watching developments.


The Risks and Rewards of a New Era

Somaliland's "give-and-take" diplomacy is a risky but necessary strategy. For over three decades, it has maintained peace and built a functioning government, but its lack of recognition has stifled its economic growth and its ability to secure foreign aid and investment. By leveraging its strategic location, it hopes to break free from this diplomatic isolation. The recent presidential elections and the backing of its new president, Abdirahman Mohamed Abdillahi (Irro), for the MoU with Ethiopia signal a continued commitment to this bold approach. The outcome of this high-stakes gamble will not only determine the future of Somaliland but will also reshape the balance of power in the volatile Horn of Africa.

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