How Did a Fifty-Year Struggle Lose Its Power in Just a Few Years?
My former comrades-in-arms have fallen into an abyss of strategic weakness and political stubbornness, ultimately putting the very survival of the people of Tigray in profound jeopardy.
An ideology that views war as a viable political alternative has cost us dearly, paid for by the tears and lives of countless Tigrayan mothers. The manner in which the current TPLF administration entered into the recent conflict demonstrates a blatant lack of a clear, strategic blueprint. This political stubbornness has extracted an unforgivable price. It is glaringly obvious that the initiation of the war was driven by raw emotion rather than a pursuit of political solutions, entirely devoid of proper preparation and rational calculation. This profound planlessness has caused the organization to plummet from a rational political trajectory into a desperate, hopeless struggle for survival.
In politics, the gravest mistake one can make is overestimating one's own power while underestimating the alliances of the enemy.
When the TPLF initiated the war, it is easy to recall that the Federal government enjoyed massive diplomatic and political support, both domestically and regionally. The "strategic blindness" that afflicted the organization's leaders during that critical juncture has become a matter of deep and enduring regret for the people of Tigray today.
Surrounded by such formidable forces, how could they wage war by their own hands? Beyond subjecting the youth and the broader population to a devastating massacre, what was the actual purpose of this decision?
On one hand, the Eritrean government’s alignment with the Federal government—driven by mutual strategic interests completely altered the balance of power in the region. On the other hand, the mobilization of forces like Fano and other regional administrations alongside the federal government confirmed that the TPLF possessed absolutely no internal support.
When you are surrounded in all directions, your primary objective should be to diplomatically isolate or neutralize your enemy. Choosing instead to open a multi-front war in such circumstances is nothing short of Strategic Suicide. Consequently, the current TPLF’s cruel decision to use the population as a human shield for its own political profit, rather than prioritizing the people's safety, deeply agonizes me as a man born in Tigray.
While the TPLF is a collective of numerous generals and senior military officers who have weathered over fifty years of prolonged struggle, it exhibited an absolute strategic failure when it should have devised a smarter, more sophisticated tactical approach for the war it entered with the Federal government between 2020 and 2022. Instead of providing the appropriate analysis required for the complex context of modern warfare, relying on the repetition of outdated, customary approaches based solely on past struggle experiences was a monumental error.
My former struggle comrades are simply not ready for change; they fear it like a demon. To the leadership of the organization, "change" is not viewed as a necessary systemic reform, but rather as an existential threat or a plot to snatch their power. Even today, the organization's guiding principles and manifestos are clothed in the obsolete thinking we utilized half a century ago. The TPLF's political arena remains saturated with old, familiar faces. An organizational culture that views engaging the youth or permitting new ideas as a direct threat is rapidly aligning the TPLF with the ranks of dead organizations.
Ultimately, for the TPLF to even contemplate initiating another war—while mired in its current state of diplomatic isolation, economic collapse, and political fragmentation—is an organizational delusion fundamentally incapable of facing reality. Personally, I have come to the conclusion that if the leadership willingly enters another war while plagued by these internal crises, it is a deliberate attempt to exterminate the people of Tigray.
This reckless political gamble is deeply dangerous, not only to the survival of Tigray as a whole but to their very own lives. To even think about reigniting war in Tigray is a clear sign signaling the absolute end of the organization's existence.